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Measuring the Effect of Spot Bitcoin ETF on Price Volatility

by Joseph Jolie
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**The Potential Impact of Bitcoin ETFs**

*Analysts say the introduction of spot ETFs could help reduce the influence of crypto whales in the market, potentially making bitcoin less volatile.*

***Spot ETFs and Liquidity***

In traditional markets, spot ETFs tend to boost liquidity in the underlying asset, providing a more stable trading environment. This has led to speculation that the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) is expected to greenlight one or more exchange-traded funds that directly invest in bitcoin.

**Whales’ Influence and ETF Approval**

The approval of such ETFs is believed to have a bullish impact on prices, but analysts are divided on whether it will have an effect on bitcoin’s notorious price volatility. A significant reason for this volatility is the influence of “whales,” a small number of owners who hold a large amount of BTC.

**Reducing Whales’ Influence**

A spot ETF is expected to track the value of the underlying assets closely, potentially trimming the influence of these whales by broadening the owner base. Nate Geraci, the president of registered investment adviser The ETF Store, believes that a spot ETF could help lower volatility by providing exposure to a wider range of investors.

**Galaxy Digital’s Estimates**

According to estimates from Galaxy Digital, the addressable market size of a U.S. bitcoin ETF could be $14 trillion in just one year after the launch, and $39 trillion in the third year. This potential uptake could boost liquidity in the underlying asset, ensuring less volatile trading conditions.

**Arbitrageurs and Their Role**

In traditional markets, ETF ownership tends to boost liquidity in the underlying stocks, according to a 2018 paper. This is largely due to the role of arbitrageurs, who trade against potential mispricings between the ETF and the basket of underlying stocks. Their actions effectively add liquidity to the underlying assets.

**Cash Creation and Volatility**

However, there are opposing views on the potential impact of spot ETFs. Laurent Kssis, an ETF expert and crypto trading adviser, argues that cash creation in ETFs could become a source of BTC price volatility. He believes that the process of cash creation could inadvertently create volatility during certain periods.

**Uncertainty Surrounding ETF Approval**

Recent rumors have emerged suggesting that the SEC wants ETF applicants to work through cash creation. This uncertainty has added to the ongoing debate surrounding the potential impact of ETFs on bitcoin’s volatility.

In conclusion, while the approval of spot ETFs is expected to have a bullish impact on prices, it remains uncertain whether it will effectively reduce bitcoin’s notorious price volatility. These differing views highlight the complexity surrounding the potential introduction of spot ETFs and their impact on the cryptocurrency market.

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